Saturday, January 24, 2009

Who should be selected in the 2009 NBA All-Star Game, Part I

Ideally, the best players would be the players we most want to watch. As much as some blowhards will attempt to browbeat us into thinking otherwise, enjoyability and effectiveness are not directly proportional. There are great players who are boring to watch, and there are exciting players who aren't that great. Since this is an all-star game, a player's basketball ability is not the only factor in determining the worthiness of his inclusion.

I'm not sure how the reserves' positions are chosen. I think it's two guards, two forwards, one center and two more at any position. At least that's what I'm going by for the sake of this post.

Western Conference:

Starters:

Guards: Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant. The best point guard and shooting guard in the NBA, respectively.

Forwards: Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki. After reading the intro, one might assume that Duncan would miss the list, but he's sixth on the MVP list this season, trailing only the Big Five. The Spurs are quietly on pace to win 56 games or so this year with Tony Parker (frighteningly overrated), Manure Ginobili (who has missed 13 of San Antonio's 43 games), Michael Finley (who is older than Greg Oden looks), Roger Mason, and a bunch of guys who are not good at basketball (Bruce Lee Bowen, Matt Bonner, George Hill).

I think a lot of people, myself included, have had enough Dirk Nowitzki in their lives over the last few years, what with his team in the finals one year, winning 67 games the next, and Dirk winning the MVP trophy by default. Now, his team's championship window has closed without them grabbing a championship. However, he's playing about as well as ever, averaging 26/8.5/2.5 on 48/38/92 shooting.

Center: Yao Ming. Center isn't the strongest position in the NBA, so 19.6 and 9.5 in 33 minutes is enough for starting honors in the West. Also, he's shooting 87% from the free throw line, which is pretty good touch for someone his size.

Reserves:

Guards: Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Kevin Durant, Brandon Roy. Point guards in any context, but especially in an all-star game, should be able to push the tempo, create and facilitate for teammates, and improvise plays. The ball should never be walked up the court in an all-star game except at the ends of quarters. Also, point guards should be able to see the court and pass the ball very well. This should go without saying, but the point guard's job is to make scoring easy for his teammates. Nash and Williams both do this better than other point guard contenders, Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker, so the former two get the nod.

Players who put up good numbers on bad teams tend to be scorned by the coaches and media, but people should pay attention to whether a team is bad despite a player's play, if his numbers are good because he's on a bad team, or worse, if the team is bad because the player has good numbers. Players who fall into the latter two categories tend to shoot a lot, and make a low percentage of them either because they have to take a lot of shots because their teammates are bad, or they take so many shots with so few points to show for it, thus hurting their team. Also, they usually don't play defense well and don't make the game easier for their teammates. I don't watch a lot of Kevin Durant and his "basketball-themed comedy group," so I can't comment on his defense, or his ability to raise his teammates' level, but I the shooting numbers tell us something about his scoring. He's averaging 24.7 points on 47/42/86 shooting. He's a pure scorer. He's not a consciousless gunner. He makes the shots he takes. I want to be able to see him without having to sit through a Thunder game.

Brandon Roy is averaging about 22-5-5 for a team that's on pace to win 49 games despite it's players second through fifth in minutes per game being Lamarcus Aldridge (who's a nice player, but 6.8 rebounds in 36 minutes from your starting power forward is awful for a 50 win team), Steve Blake (a 7th man on a championship team), Travis Outlaw (11.5/4/1), and Rudy Fernandez (11/3/2). Brandon Roy is the glue that holds it all together.

Forwards: Pau Gasol and Amare Stoudemire. Pau Gasol is averaging 17.5/9.1/3.4 on 56% shooting for a team that's on pace to win 66 games.

All my loyal reader will perhaps remember that I'm not crazy about Amare, but given the rest of the field, and given his potential to do amazing stuff, he should play in the all star game.

Center: Shaquille O'Neal. Center isn't the strongest position in the NBA, so 17.9 and 9 in 30.5 minutes is enough for reserve honors in the West. Also, he's shooting 62% from the free throw line, which is pretty good touch for someone his size who can't shoot free throws.

Honorable Mention:

Carmelo Anthony- Injuries were limiting him when he was playing, and now they're preventing him from playing.
Chauncey Billups- A good point guard who's doing a great job in Denver, but who's not as good as either Nash or Williams.
Manu Ginobili- Maybe he would make it another year, but the other guards are more deserving.
Al Jefferson- Statistically, he's a good numbers/bad team guy, and I have heard rumors from people claiming to actually watch the Timberwolves that he's bad at defense. I'll take their word for it.
Tony Parker- A very good but not elite point guard.
David West- 20 points? Good. Seven rebounds in 38 minutes as a power forward? Not so much.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Lebron James and Bill Brasky

Do any of my reader remember the Bill Brasky skits on SNL from the mid-90's? Here's a refresher. Back when Lebron was about to host SNL's season premiere, ESPN.com columnist DJ Gallo suggested the following skit: "Bill Brasky: Patrons at a bar are loudly proclaiming the greatness of a man they all know named Bill Brasky. "His family crest is a picture of a barracuda eating Neil Armstrong!" "He breast-feeds John Madden!" "He once punched a hole in a cow just to see who was coming up the road!" Minutes later, more patrons flood into the bar after a Cavaliers game lets out. They start up with their own tales of LeBron James. "He was 6-foot-5 in the seventh grade!" "He scored the last 25 points in Game 5 of the conference finals!" "He got Lasik eye surgery without pain medication!" The Brasky fans soon agree that James is more impressive."

The similarity between Lebron and Bill Brasky that I like the most is how their height and weight keep increasing. He came into the NBA at about 6-8, 240, but I've seen him described as 6-8.5, or even 6-9. His stated weight usually ranges from 250 to 260, which seems reasonable. However, some people can't help but exaggerate. In a game against the Bulls about a month ago, the telecast listed him as 273 pound at one point, and then at 274 later in the telecast. Apparently, he's growing more powerful by the minute. In today's Espn.com NBA Writers Roundtable, J.A. Adande describes Lebron as weighing 285 pounds.

I'd like to see the hyperbole going on forever, but it's hard to imagine him going above 285. Maybe a few more pounds, but that's pretty near the ceiling. Likewise, I can't see anyone describing him 6-10 or higher. 6'-9.5"? Definitely possible. If he peaks in the playoffs and the Cavs win a championship, which is a likely possibility, I would like to say him described as, say, 6-11, 310 pounds.