First Round:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Record (pythagorean): 57-25 (59-23)
Home Record: 30-11
Away Record: 27-14
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
vs. 8 Denver Nuggets
Record (pythagorean): 50-32 (51-31)
Home Record: 33-8
Away Record: 17-24
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Notes: The Denver offense is based on running off of turnovers and opponent's missed shots. The Nuggets' offense and defense are both gimmicky, and I don't see the Lakers failing to prepare and brushing the Nuggets aside. Lakers in four.
4 Utah Jazz
Record (pythagorean): 54-28 (59-23)
Home Record: 37-4
Away Record: 17-24
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
vs. 5 Houston Rockets
Record (pythagorean): 55-27 (55-27)
Home Record: 31-10
Away Record: 24-17
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Notes: Houston went 24-20, 22-0, then finished 9-7. Unfortunately for the Rockets, I don't see them going back to their 22-0 form. Also, even though Utah has higher seed, Houston has a better record and therefore home court advantage. Utah in six.
3 Phoenix Suns
Record (pythagorean): 55-27 (54-28)
Home Record: 30-11
Away Record: 25-16
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
vs. 6 San Antonio Spurs
Record (pythagorean): 56-26 (55-27)
Home Record: 34-7
Away Record: 22-19
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Notes: Both teams have gotten worse since last year. The Spurs have forgotten how to score and Tim Duncan is noticeably in decline. The Suns are no longer the best offensive team and are just as bad defensively. On one hand, the Suns are 3-1 vs. the Spurs (compared to 3-7 the last three regular seasons, and 3-8 in the playoffs), with the one loss coming by three points (81-84). On the other hand, I have a hard time counting out the Spurs, or counting on the Suns. Therefore, I have to predict the Spurs uglying up the series and pulling it out in seven.
2 New Orleans Hornets
Record (pythagorean): 56-26 (56-26)
Home Record: 30-11
Away Record: 26-15
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks
Record (pythagorean): 51-31 (54-28)
Home Record: 34-7
Away Record: 17-24
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Notes: The Mavericks are only 16-13 since the Kidd trade, but a lot of the losses have been close (seven by a combined 25 points), while most of the wins have been lopsided (only four were by single digits- 8, 9, 7, and 3, to be specific). Conclusion: the Mavericks are better than their record. The Hornets have been very good, but have little playoff experience. I see the Mavs pulling this one out in six.
Second Round:
1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 4 Utah Jazz: This matchup, should it occur, would showcase the fourth and fifth highest scoring teams in the NBA (behind Golden State, Phoenix, and Denver). The teams have been about the same during the regular season, but I think the Lakers will fare better in the playoffs because of this: Jerry Sloan's teams are usually the hardest-working ones in the league, so when everyone else ratchets up the intensity, they stay at the same level, while Phil Jackson's teams often coast during the regular season and turn it up in the playoffs. Though I would root for the Jazz, I'd have to say Lakers in six.
3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks: When Dallas let Steve Nash go a few seasons ago, they redesigned the team to beat the Spurs. They've been pretty effective at it (1-3 in 2005 (but Dallas outscored San Antonio over the four games), 2-2 (with +16 scoring margin) and 4-3 (very nearly 6-1) in the playoffs in 2006, 3-1 last season, and 1-3 this season (even though they outscored the Spurs), and San Antonio is well below the level it's been at the last few seasons. Therefore, I'm picking the Mavericks in six.
Conference Finals:
1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks: The Lakers barely won the season series 3-1 with the wins coming by margins of 4 (in OT), 2, and 4, and the Mavs' pre-Kidd win by 7. Lakers in seven.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
Record (pythagorean): 57-25 (59-23)
Home Record: 30-11
Away Record: 27-14
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
vs. 8 Denver Nuggets
Record (pythagorean): 50-32 (51-31)
Home Record: 33-8
Away Record: 17-24
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Notes: The Denver offense is based on running off of turnovers and opponent's missed shots. The Nuggets' offense and defense are both gimmicky, and I don't see the Lakers failing to prepare and brushing the Nuggets aside. Lakers in four.
4 Utah Jazz
Record (pythagorean): 54-28 (59-23)
Home Record: 37-4
Away Record: 17-24
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
vs. 5 Houston Rockets
Record (pythagorean): 55-27 (55-27)
Home Record: 31-10
Away Record: 24-17
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Notes: Houston went 24-20, 22-0, then finished 9-7. Unfortunately for the Rockets, I don't see them going back to their 22-0 form. Also, even though Utah has higher seed, Houston has a better record and therefore home court advantage. Utah in six.
3 Phoenix Suns
Record (pythagorean): 55-27 (54-28)
Home Record: 30-11
Away Record: 25-16
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
vs. 6 San Antonio Spurs
Record (pythagorean): 56-26 (55-27)
Home Record: 34-7
Away Record: 22-19
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Notes: Both teams have gotten worse since last year. The Spurs have forgotten how to score and Tim Duncan is noticeably in decline. The Suns are no longer the best offensive team and are just as bad defensively. On one hand, the Suns are 3-1 vs. the Spurs (compared to 3-7 the last three regular seasons, and 3-8 in the playoffs), with the one loss coming by three points (81-84). On the other hand, I have a hard time counting out the Spurs, or counting on the Suns. Therefore, I have to predict the Spurs uglying up the series and pulling it out in seven.
2 New Orleans Hornets
Record (pythagorean): 56-26 (56-26)
Home Record: 30-11
Away Record: 26-15
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks
Record (pythagorean): 51-31 (54-28)
Home Record: 34-7
Away Record: 17-24
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Notes: The Mavericks are only 16-13 since the Kidd trade, but a lot of the losses have been close (seven by a combined 25 points), while most of the wins have been lopsided (only four were by single digits- 8, 9, 7, and 3, to be specific). Conclusion: the Mavericks are better than their record. The Hornets have been very good, but have little playoff experience. I see the Mavs pulling this one out in six.
Second Round:
1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 4 Utah Jazz: This matchup, should it occur, would showcase the fourth and fifth highest scoring teams in the NBA (behind Golden State, Phoenix, and Denver). The teams have been about the same during the regular season, but I think the Lakers will fare better in the playoffs because of this: Jerry Sloan's teams are usually the hardest-working ones in the league, so when everyone else ratchets up the intensity, they stay at the same level, while Phil Jackson's teams often coast during the regular season and turn it up in the playoffs. Though I would root for the Jazz, I'd have to say Lakers in six.
3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks: When Dallas let Steve Nash go a few seasons ago, they redesigned the team to beat the Spurs. They've been pretty effective at it (1-3 in 2005 (but Dallas outscored San Antonio over the four games), 2-2 (with +16 scoring margin) and 4-3 (very nearly 6-1) in the playoffs in 2006, 3-1 last season, and 1-3 this season (even though they outscored the Spurs), and San Antonio is well below the level it's been at the last few seasons. Therefore, I'm picking the Mavericks in six.
Conference Finals:
1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks: The Lakers barely won the season series 3-1 with the wins coming by margins of 4 (in OT), 2, and 4, and the Mavs' pre-Kidd win by 7. Lakers in seven.
1 comment:
I know this probly belongs with a previous post, but I was just looking thru Basketbawful's breakdown of the Suns-Spurs matchup, and there was a video (albeit of poor image quality) of Bruce Bowen being a total asswipe...and I just thought to myself, boy, is that Bruce Bowen a total asswipe.
Come to think of it, I don't like Robert Horry, not even a little. Some may call him Big Shot Bob, but I call him Big Dickhead Bob. And I'm sick of Manu's crappy flopping, especially since it actually gets him calls. And I'm tired of Duncan, period. And Parker is no MVP. I want the Spurs to lose. I hope it can the Suns to send all these sucks packing, but if it can't be the Suns, I still hope it happens sooner rather than later.
Maybe just sour grapes since they've knocked out the Suns, but I think it's more a case of one team happening to have a collection of players that I really dislike for one reason or another. Kind of like the Lakers a few years ago.
Go Suns. Go whoever is playing the Spurs.
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