15. Milwaukee Bucks
2007-8 Record: 26-56
Projected Record: 24-58
Notes: Meh.
14. New Jersey Nets
2007-8 Record: 34-48
Projected Record: 27-55
Notes: Meh.
13. New York Knicks
2007-8 Record: 23-59
Projected Record: 28-54
Notes: Nowhere to go but up. Once upon a time, when Isaiah Thomas was still running the Knicks (into the ground), he described his actions with the Knicks: "When you move into your house, the guy who poured the concrete never really gets a chance to live in that beautiful house that he built, and our job right now is to make sure that we lay the concrete and we lay it correctly.” That's an interesting way to describe signing overpaid overrated cancers to long-term contracts. The roster is still really crappy, but I think new GM Donnie Walsh and new head coach Mike D'Antoni will go a different way and lay a foundation based on a culture of professionalism and teamwork. The win-loss record won't change much, but I think fans will sense a change in the culture of the team. They'll still suck, but they won't be as embarrassing to watch.
12. Indiana Pacers
2007-8 Record: 36-46
Projected Record: 32-50
Notes: Meh.
11. Charlotte Bobcats
2007-8 Record: 32-50
Projected Record: 34-48
Notes: Eventually, they will be a playoff team, and everyone will have underestimated them, but they're like the Clippers in that you can ignore the roster and just predict they'll suck and you'll be right 90% of the time. Oddly, I haven't heard anyone say Adam Morrison reminds them of Larry Bird recently.
10. Atlanta Hawks
2007-8 Record: 37-45
Projected Record: 36-46
Notes: They'll have Mike Bibby for the whole season instead of just part of it, which should help, but they lost Josh Childress to Olympiakos, which hurts. You may remember their close series with the Celtics in the playoffs last season, but you shouldn't forget that they only made the playoffs because of the weakness of the Eastern Conference.
9. Miami Heat
2007-8 Record: 15-67
Projected Record: 37-45
Notes: They'll probably have Dwyane Wade for more than 51 games this season. They'll have Shawn Marion the whole season. They tricked some stupid team into taking Shaq's fat ass and fatter salary and even fatter ass, and fatterer salary. Michael Beasley will begin his Good Numbers On A Bad Team Guy Hall Of Fame career.
8. Chicago Bulls
2007-8 Record: 33-49
Projected Record: 42-40
Notes: They Bulls went 49-33 in 2007, but won 16 fewer games the next season with pretty much the same roster. I don't know about Derrick Rose. I've seen him compared to Jason Kidd, but I don't know how apt that is. Rose averaged 14.9/4.5/4.7 as a freshman, whereas Kidd averaged 13/4.9/7.7. Besides the similarity in size and strength, they didn't look all that similar to me from what little I saw of him.
7. Washington Wizards
2007-8 Record: 43-39
Projected Record: 43-39
Notes: Caron Butler is their best and most important player. Gilbert Arenas is their best paid player. I see the Wizards staying a little above .500 for most of the season, not defending too well, and losing in the first round of the playoffs, much like the last three seasons. I'm just going to copy-and-paste this for every Wizards preview for the foreseeable future.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
2007-8 Record: 40-42
Projected Record: 47-35
Notes: They added Elton Brand, a career 20-10 guy, who can score inside, and should move Andre Iguodala to a role as second option, closer to his natural role as third option.
5. Orlando Magic
2007-8 Record: 52-30
Projected Record: 51-31
Notes: I'm feeling a 23-14 from Howard. Turkoglu will not repeat his 19.5/5.7/5.0 season as defenses focus on him, and people will stop saying he's the real MVP of the Magic, thank God. Their point guards aren't good enough to get the Magic's wins into the high 50s.
4. Toronto Raptors
2007-8 Record: 41-41
Projected Record: 52-30
Notes: Last year, they outscored their opponents by 2.9 points per game, meaning they should have won 50 games. They lost T.J. Ford, who was only taking minutes from a better point guard Jose Calderon, and added Jermaine O'Neal, who's been called overrated (rightfully) for so long, he's actually a little underrated. Also, I see them flying under the radar and getting a few extra wins before other teams realize how seriously the Raptors should be taken.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
2007-8 Record: 45-37
Projected Record: 53-29
Notes: They won 50 games in 2006 and 2007, and only won 45 last season after two contract holdouts, Lebron missing 7 games due to injury (Cavs went 0-7 during that span, of course), and having Larry Hughes on the roster, fruitlessly aiming jump shots at the hoop. The Cavs advanced to the finals in 2007, and lost in the conference semis in 2006 and 2008, both times in series they should have won. They are a team that's built for the playoffs. Mo Williams should improve their offense from "awful in spite of Lebron James" to "decent but only because of Lebron James." Their record won't improve much, but they'll probably be in the finals again.
2. Detroit Pistons
2007-8 Record: 59-23
Projected Record: 55-27
Notes: They really haven't slipped that much since they won a championship in 2004. They just went from a postseason team to a regular season team. I expect them to bore their way to 55 wins, then disappoint in the playoffs again.
1. Boston Celtics
2007-8 Record: 66-16
Projected Record: 60-22
Notes: They're a little older, and more importantly, a little less motivated to win every single game. They will not repeat as champions.
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