The Summer of 2010 Free Agent Class

If you read a lot of basketball press, you are probably aware that a lot of teams are trying to shed salaries so they can make some big signings in the summer of 2010. Here's my list of the top 13 available free agents (The player's age during the summer of 2010 in parentheses):

The Old Guys:

13. Steve Nash (36)- Considering that most contracts are going to be for at least a few years, Nash is going to be really old, like 39 if it's a four-year deal. Thirty-nine is really old, especially for someone who's had back problems since at least his late twenties. However, he is a big name, and knowing the NBA, I'm sure someone will rush to sign him to a long-term contract.

12. Tracy McGrady (31)- Thirty-one going on 41. Has this guy aged badly or what? Given how much he's been declining the last six seasons, I can't see him getting better than where he is now: a 22-5-6 player on a team that may or may not make it into the second round. Any team that would sign him would have to imagine how good he would be at 35 or 36, although they probably won't.

11. Manure Ginobili (32-33)- I have a hard time figuring out what to make of him. On one hand, he has an olympic gold medal, a silver medal at the '02 worlds, and was a Nocioni buzzer-beater away from making the finals (and a probable gold) at the '06 worlds, and he won three NBA titles with the Spurs. On the other hand, the international results should have an asterisk because Team USA's "leadership" fell asleep at the wheel during Argentina's peak. When he's on the Argentina team, they are 2-4 against Team USA, seven- and eight-point wins at the '02 worlds and '04 olympics, eight- and 33-point losses at the 2003 Olympic Qualifier, and 15- and 20-point losses at the '06 worlds and '08 Olympics. The '02 and '04 results could have easily been the same if those American teams weren't so terribly selected and coached. With both the Spurs and in international play, he's been in the right place at the right time. On the other hand, I look at his statistics from last season, and he averaged 25.1/6.2/5.8 per 40 minutes, which were legitimate second team all NBA numbers and first team some years if Popovich had given him the playing time. I can't decide whether he's way overrated or way underrated. I'm going to say both. People don't appreciate how good he is nor how lucky he has been.

As for his free agent status, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Europe. Consider that 1) He's from Argentina, so culturally speaking, living in Europe is about the same as living in the U.S., as opposed to American players who are at home in the NBA and maybe uncomfortable or uninterested in Europe. 2) He's already proven himself in the NBA, so he may be less likely to take a pay cut to stay in the NBA. 3) He may not have to take a paycut. Childress' 3-year, 13.5 million euro tax-free salary is roughly the equivalent of a 3 year, $30 million dollar NBA contract. 4) He is a known quantity in FIBA rules, having excelled in international competition, and in Europe before coming to the NBA. He played in Euroleague finals in 2001 and 2002, winning the first and losing the second. He is one of the biggest stars that plays equally well in FIBA rules as in the NBA. Therefore, European teams wouldn't be making much of a risk in signing him.

The X-Factor:

10. Tyson Chandler (player option) (27)- A lot of astute baskeball observers made a big deal of New Orleans signing James Posey this summer. While Posey is not a star, he compliments stars with tough defense, three-point shooting, and toughness. Tyson Chandler, while playing a different position, has a similar effect on his team. He isn't going to sell tickets, but he protects the rim, rebounds, plays defense, and finishes what Chris Paul creates. Of course, he could chose not to opt out of his contract, too.

The Guys Who Probably Aren't Going Anywhere:

9. Rajon Rando (restricted) (24)- He's a very good defender, and offensively, he's more of a facilitator than a creator, both of which make him a good fit for the Celtics as currently constituted. He will be a restricted free agent, meaning the Celtics can match any offer from any other team. Since he has more value to the Celtics, he will probably stay in Boston for a while.

8. Dirk Nowitzki (player option) (32)- Second on this list only to Tracy McGrady in the "stars whose lights have dimmed in recent years." Jesus, this guy almost won a championship, then won 67 games and an MVP (in an uberweak MVP race), and now he just looks sad and defeated. I think Dallas will try to keep him because he means so much to the Mavericks. However, if it doesn't look like the Mavs have turned things around by then, he may go somewhere where he can be someone's Scottie Pippen (his idol) and win a championship.

7. Joe Johnson (28)- A very good player, but let's not get carried away. As Atlanta's best player for three years, he's averaged 22-4.2-5.7 and the Hawks have won 26, 30, and 37 games. I don't think the Hawks will let anyone outbid them. Besides, the Hawks are an up and coming team. I can't see JJ leaving a deep playoff contender for some crappy team. Wait...

6. Carlos Boozer (28)- A 21-11-3 guy for the Jazz. He's such a good fit with D-Will and Jerry Sloan, I think the Jazz will see to it that he stays.

5. Brandon Roy (restricted) (25-26)- Not sure if he's good enough to be the centerpiece of a championship caliber team, unless it's a very balanced team (which the Blazers are/will be), and one with a strong defense (ditto, if Greg Oden plays 20 years younger). He's the face of a young, unselfish, good-guy, high character team. The Blazers will likely offer the maximum, and if they don't they're more than likely to match any offer sheets. They won't let him go anywhere.

Fourth, Bronze, and Silver:

4. Chris Bosh (player option) (26)- His numbers have gone up this year, but that can be attributed to his increase in playing time. Throwing out his first two seasons (his second and third years out of high school), he has averaged 22.6/9.8/2.5 on 50% shooting and 81.4% of free throws. He's an okay defender, but not a great rim-protector and shotblocker. He probably means more to Toronto than to anyone else, unless he can lure either someone else to his new team. They probably won't be the only team offering him a max contract. Where he signs may influence what the top two decide.

3. Amare Stoudemire (player option) (27)- He has his pre-microfacture athleticism back, and he isn't so dependent on Steve Nash any more. However, he still doesn't rebound as well as he should, he's still a bad defender, and he doesn't make things easier for his teammates. He's a very explosive scorer and has a jaw-dropping mid-range game, but he shouldn't be mistaken for a dominant big man.

2. Dwyane Wade (player option) (28)- The Good: Career averages of 25.8/5/6.9 since his secodn season, good defense, gets to the free throw line, clutchness, playoff experience. The Bad: Plays an average of 63 games per season, including 51 each of the last two, not really sure how he's going to age given his penchant for getting injured, which is an issue considering he would be 33 at the end of a five-year contract. My money is on Wade ending up in New York if number one (whose name I won't mention lest I ruin the surprise) doesn't.

The Chosen One:

1. Lebron Raymone James (player option) (25)- Where do we begin? Post-rookie career averages of 28.9/7.3/6.8 on .479/.327/.726 shooting, much-improved defense, the size and strength of a power forward, the quickness of a guard, the court-vision, anticipation, and passing of a hall-of-fame point guard, the wisdom and poise of a 20-year veteran, the ability to raise the level of his teammates or carry them on his shoulders, shot selection and feel for the game, indestructability, the wisdom of age, the vigor of youth. This season, his minutes are down from the last few years. If he were averaging 41.5 minutes per game like he has the last four years, he would be averaging 32.6/8.6/7.6. And he's still improving. The bad: Shoots too many threes, dribbles too much (although not as much this year since Mike Brown installed an actual offense this year), free throw shooting, defense not as good as it could be.

Where might Lebron go if he leaves Cleveland? The most common options brought up are in order of probability: New York Knicks, New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets, Portland Trailblazers, Detroit Pistons, Olympiakos. Olympiakos is not going to offer him $50 million. While the billionaire owners may not care about the bottom line, they don't care that little. The Pistons would have been a good choice from a basketball perspective a few years ago, but not in an overall sense, and no longer in even a basketball sense, since Cleveland has a good supporting cast now. The Blazers have been mentioned because they have a highly respected coach, a really young nucleus, and oodles of cash in the summer of 2010, and Nike is located in Oregon. Only the first three make sense, but in any event, I don't see him leaving Cleveland for anywhere besides New York. The Nets, even if they are in Brooklyn by the 2010-11 season, are the Nets. That would be like joining the Clippers. Technically, it's in the same city, but the spotlight burns brighter on, and the city cares more about, its rival.

That leaves the New York Knicks and the Cleveland Cavaliers. What are the reasons for signing for each of them?

New York Knicks: Lebron has said he wants to be a billionaire, which would require investing in a lot of different industries, i.e. clothing, music, movies, etc., which is easier to do in New York than in Cleveland. There are a lot of rumors about Lebron's Nike contract (and his other contracts) having a clause that would increase its value if he moved to a bigger market. I don't know if that's true or not, but what is true is that his Nike contract, which he signed in the summer of 2003, was for seven years. When he opts out in 2010, he will not have a shoe contract. Do you think his next shoe contract would be worth more if he's playing in Cleveland or New York? Mike D'Antoni has a successful track record as a coach, and Donnie Walsh has a successful track record as general manager. If you take out Walsh's first few seasons, when he was getting his feet wet and had not made much of an impact on the team, and the last few seasons, when he had to trade away Ron Artest (who had gone completely bonkers) and Stephen Jackson (who "has been charged with felony criminal recklessness and a number of other misdemeanors, including assault, disorderly conduct, and two counts of battery"), say, between 1994 and the Jackson trade, the Pacers went 634-483 (48.5 wins per 82), and that's without either the resources of the Knicks or the big-market lure of New York that he has now. Lebron says New York is his favorite city.

Cleveland: Cleveland is one of few teams that have enough cap space to sign two max contracts in 2010. They are the only one that can sign two without going over the salary cap because of the Larry Bird exception, which allows team to re-sign their own free agents without going over the salary cap. Things can change between now and 2010, but Cleveland is the team most likely to have both a lot of cap space and a good, championship contending supporting cast. Maurice Williams and Daniel Gibson are both signed through 2013 for a combined $13.2 million per year, and Delonte West will be there through 2011. The contracts of Eric Snow, who works on NBATV, and Wally Szczerbiak, the one-dimensional spot-up shooter who can't hit open shots, both expire after this year. Obviously, they'd have to sign some more players, but they would have inroads in re-signing their own contributors (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace?, Sasha Pavlovic?). The Cavs have a team built for the playoffs. They play tough, physical defense, rebound well, and have overachieved three years in a row (almost beat 64-18 Pistons in 2006, went to Finals as 2 seed in 2007, should have beaten 66-16 Celtics last season). If you take that as well as Danny Ferry's vow to spend however much it takes to build a championship team, the Cavs could easily shape up to be the team most likely to offer Lebron a chance to win championships. Also, he's from Ohio.