Thursday, January 31, 2008
50/40/90 Correction
I was checking basketballrefence.com's 100 best free three percentage seasons for individual players, and it turns out that Mark Price shot 50/40/90 during the 1988-9 season: 52.6/44.1/90.1.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
First Half Review Part II
Western Conference:
1. New Orleans Hornets (30-12): On pace to win 59 games, the Hornets are one of the more pleasant suprises in the NBA this season. Chris Paul (48/36/89 shooting, 20.7 points, 10.5 assists, 2.6 steals) is one of the top 3 point guards in the NBA. They have the 8th most efficient offense and the third most efficient defense. The Hornets have two of the most underrated players in the NBA in David West (19.4 points, 9.3 rebounds) and Tyson Chandler (12.3 points, 12.3 rebounds). Best of all they've quietly won 15 of 17 since starting 15-10. 60 wins, second round playoff loss.
2. Phoenix (31-13): They are on pace to finish about the same place as the last few seasons, but this year they have their worst chance of winning a championship since Steve Nash rejoined the Suns. They get murdered by any big man, especially on the boards. They got rid of Kurt Thomas, and signed the poor man's Kurt Thomas, Brian Skinner, whom D'Antoni never plays. (Skinner isn't bad, but Thomas was better). They get outrebounded by 5.7 per game (worst in the league), give up 14.1 offensive rebounds per game (ditto), and have the 20th most efficient defense. Amare Stoudemire isn't is good as he thinks he is, and can't guard centers to save his life. Steve Nash is a basketball playing machine. He makes the right decision every time. His statistics during his second Phoenix stint: 17.7 points, 11.3 assists, 51.6/45/90.3 shooting. The Suns have gone 208-82 (59-23) with him, and 4-13 (19-63) without him. Also he's been on the league's top scoring team each of the last seven seasons. 58 wins, second round of playoffs, but I could easily see them going further depending on matchups.
3. Dallas Mavericks (29-13): They're obviously trying to build towards the playoffs, and win there instead of in the regular season. In other words, the exact opposite of last year. I can't feel comfortable ruling them out since they did win 67 games last year, and almost won it all the year before. I don't think they'll win, but nobody's talking about them this year, and they're still dangerous as hell. 58 wins, conference finals.
4. Denver Nuggets (26-16): The Nuggets actually have the sixth best record, but each division has to have at least one top-four seed, so here they are. They have a surprisingly good defense (6th in the league) thanks in large part to Marcus Camby (14.4 rebounds, 3.9 blocks). Their offense is only average, though (14th). Carmelo Anthony is a lot more fun to watch on Team USA than when he's on the Nuggets. In part, this is because he is made better by his teammates, but he doesn't make them better. When he plays with Denver, he's expected to be the centerpiece, but with Team USA, other players raise his play. According to my projected standings, the Nuggets are currently on pace to finish only .3 games ahead of number 9 Utah Jazz. If they do hang on to make the playoffs, they'll lost in the first round for the fifth straight year. 48 wins.
5. San Antonio Spurs (28-13): Going in to the season, I really thought the Spurs were going to dominate the league. After winning their fourth championship, all they had left to prove was to repeat. My prediction looked pretty good when the Spurs started 17-3, but then they went 8-10 before winning their last three. I think the Spurs may actually be done with their championships now. We all know they're coasting until the playoffs, but I just don't see them as being good enough this year. It's hard choosing against them, but it has to end some time. Then again, no teams look that great, so they could win by default, like their first 4 championships. 56 wins, championship.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (27-14): I'm guessing Kobe is glad he wasn't traded to the Bulls after all. This is the first year that Kobe is actually making his teammates better. Andrew Bynum (13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 64% shooting, 2.1 blocks) is good, and will be really good soon. I hate to say this, but when the Lakers are running the triangle, they're actually pretty fun to watch. They are the third highest scoring team in the league at 107.3 points per game, behind only the Suns and the Warriors. They're balanced, and Phil Jackson's teams tend to do better in the postseason than in the regular season. Kobe Bryant still has horrible shot selection. Anyone who is as good a shooter as he is, who can drive to the basket as well as he can, and who plays in an offense like the triangle, should shoot a lot better than 45%. Andrew Bynum's absence will drop their record to 53 wins, conference finals, but they could go all the way. Of course, it won't be "pretty fun to watch" Kobe and Phil winning another ring. God help me if this happens.
7. Golden State Warriors (26-18): They run and score a lot and give up a lot of points. That pretty much sums them up. 48 wins, either no playoffs or first round exit.
8. Portland Trailblazers (25-18): Brandon Roy is pretty good. Portland has the youngest team in the league and the third youngest team ever, or so I've read somewhere. They may not hold on to a playoff spot, but just imagine the following scenario: Portland wins 45-48 games, misses the playoffs, gets reasonably lucky in the lottery to get a good draft pick in a deep-ass draft. Then, the players mature, grow together and improve on their 13th ranked offense. The only thing holding them back may be their 18th ranked defense. Oh yeah, they have Bill Rusell's older brother joining the team next year. I'd say the future looks pretty bright in Portland.
9. Utah Jazz (25-18): The Jazz were the fourth seed in the playoffs last season with 51 wins. They're on pace to finish with three fewer and are currently out of the playoffs. Man, the West is deep this year. Meanwhile, the Pacers are currently on pace to make the playoffs in the East by finishing with 35 wins. Deron Williams (19.2 points, 9.3 assists, 52/40/78 shooting) is probably the second best point guard in the NBA behind Nash. Some prefer Chris Paul, but I love watching Deron despite his role in The Unmentionable Game of 2005. Carlos Boozer is good, but wouldn't be as good without Deron. The Jazz have the third best offense, but only the 15th best defense. 49 wins, first round exit.
10. Houston (24-19): After winning 52 games last year, a lot of people (including me) predicted them making a jump to say, 57 wins. My reasoning was they already had a solid defensive rotation, and Rick Adleman would improve the offense. I thought it would be like the 2006 Pistons after adding Flip Saunders' offense to Larry Brown's defense, but with Adleman and Jeff Van Gundy. Currently, they're on pace to win 46 games, which is usually playoff-worthy, but not this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck up and stole a playoff spot. 48 wins, either miss the playoffs, or first round exit.
11. Sacramento Kings (18-24): Remember how fun the Kings were back in '02 with Bibby, Christie, Stojakovic, Webber, Divac, Jackson, and Turkoglu? Yeah. Me, too. 38 wins.
12. Los Angeles Clippers (13-26): Now these are the Clippers we're used to. No more making the playoffs and almost beating the Suns in the conference semis. During the Clippers' anomoly in 2006, Chris Kaman averaged 11.9 and 9.6. Last year, 10.1 and 7.8. This year? How about 17.2 and 13.9, and 3 blocks? Granted, his numbers are inflated by the absence of Elton Brand, and he's just putting up good numbers on a bad team, but still. 17 and 14? Chris Kaman? 27 wins.
13. Memphis Grizzlies (12-31): Something interesting about Memphis? Hmm. Something interesting about Memphis... Ooo I got it. Did you know that Elvis was from Memphis? Yeah, I figured you would. Well, did you know that they're exhibit B in my case for conctraction in the NBA? Can you guess who exhibit A is????? 23 wins
14. Seattle Supersonics (9-34): Seattle is really bad. Dead last in offensive efficiency. Durant has been just awful this year. 19/4/2 on 40/29/86 shooting. I'm not sure what inspired Coach Carlesimo's decision to make Durant shoot the ball every time he touched it. I'm not sure how that's going to help him in the long run. It's like he's trying to turn Durant into someone I won't want to watch. To be fair, he's still only 19 (about 10 months younger than 20-year old freshman O.J. Mayo), so he kinda gets a pass, but make no mistakes, he has sucked ass this year. 19 wins.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (7-35): By far the worst team in the NBA. 28th best offense, 30th best defense. Sebastian Telfair has a 64-191 career record. His teams win just over 25% of the time. His teams have finished 26th, 30th, 29th in the standings, and the T-wolves are currently a lock to finish 30th this season. He isn't just doing this with one team, either. He's with his third team. This guy had a documentary crew follow him his senior season of high school. He is currently averaging 9.8 points on 40.4% shooting and 5.9 assists, all career highs. 15 wins.
1. New Orleans Hornets (30-12): On pace to win 59 games, the Hornets are one of the more pleasant suprises in the NBA this season. Chris Paul (48/36/89 shooting, 20.7 points, 10.5 assists, 2.6 steals) is one of the top 3 point guards in the NBA. They have the 8th most efficient offense and the third most efficient defense. The Hornets have two of the most underrated players in the NBA in David West (19.4 points, 9.3 rebounds) and Tyson Chandler (12.3 points, 12.3 rebounds). Best of all they've quietly won 15 of 17 since starting 15-10. 60 wins, second round playoff loss.
2. Phoenix (31-13): They are on pace to finish about the same place as the last few seasons, but this year they have their worst chance of winning a championship since Steve Nash rejoined the Suns. They get murdered by any big man, especially on the boards. They got rid of Kurt Thomas, and signed the poor man's Kurt Thomas, Brian Skinner, whom D'Antoni never plays. (Skinner isn't bad, but Thomas was better). They get outrebounded by 5.7 per game (worst in the league), give up 14.1 offensive rebounds per game (ditto), and have the 20th most efficient defense. Amare Stoudemire isn't is good as he thinks he is, and can't guard centers to save his life. Steve Nash is a basketball playing machine. He makes the right decision every time. His statistics during his second Phoenix stint: 17.7 points, 11.3 assists, 51.6/45/90.3 shooting. The Suns have gone 208-82 (59-23) with him, and 4-13 (19-63) without him. Also he's been on the league's top scoring team each of the last seven seasons. 58 wins, second round of playoffs, but I could easily see them going further depending on matchups.
3. Dallas Mavericks (29-13): They're obviously trying to build towards the playoffs, and win there instead of in the regular season. In other words, the exact opposite of last year. I can't feel comfortable ruling them out since they did win 67 games last year, and almost won it all the year before. I don't think they'll win, but nobody's talking about them this year, and they're still dangerous as hell. 58 wins, conference finals.
4. Denver Nuggets (26-16): The Nuggets actually have the sixth best record, but each division has to have at least one top-four seed, so here they are. They have a surprisingly good defense (6th in the league) thanks in large part to Marcus Camby (14.4 rebounds, 3.9 blocks). Their offense is only average, though (14th). Carmelo Anthony is a lot more fun to watch on Team USA than when he's on the Nuggets. In part, this is because he is made better by his teammates, but he doesn't make them better. When he plays with Denver, he's expected to be the centerpiece, but with Team USA, other players raise his play. According to my projected standings, the Nuggets are currently on pace to finish only .3 games ahead of number 9 Utah Jazz. If they do hang on to make the playoffs, they'll lost in the first round for the fifth straight year. 48 wins.
5. San Antonio Spurs (28-13): Going in to the season, I really thought the Spurs were going to dominate the league. After winning their fourth championship, all they had left to prove was to repeat. My prediction looked pretty good when the Spurs started 17-3, but then they went 8-10 before winning their last three. I think the Spurs may actually be done with their championships now. We all know they're coasting until the playoffs, but I just don't see them as being good enough this year. It's hard choosing against them, but it has to end some time. Then again, no teams look that great, so they could win by default, like their first 4 championships. 56 wins, championship.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (27-14): I'm guessing Kobe is glad he wasn't traded to the Bulls after all. This is the first year that Kobe is actually making his teammates better. Andrew Bynum (13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 64% shooting, 2.1 blocks) is good, and will be really good soon. I hate to say this, but when the Lakers are running the triangle, they're actually pretty fun to watch. They are the third highest scoring team in the league at 107.3 points per game, behind only the Suns and the Warriors. They're balanced, and Phil Jackson's teams tend to do better in the postseason than in the regular season. Kobe Bryant still has horrible shot selection. Anyone who is as good a shooter as he is, who can drive to the basket as well as he can, and who plays in an offense like the triangle, should shoot a lot better than 45%. Andrew Bynum's absence will drop their record to 53 wins, conference finals, but they could go all the way. Of course, it won't be "pretty fun to watch" Kobe and Phil winning another ring. God help me if this happens.
7. Golden State Warriors (26-18): They run and score a lot and give up a lot of points. That pretty much sums them up. 48 wins, either no playoffs or first round exit.
8. Portland Trailblazers (25-18): Brandon Roy is pretty good. Portland has the youngest team in the league and the third youngest team ever, or so I've read somewhere. They may not hold on to a playoff spot, but just imagine the following scenario: Portland wins 45-48 games, misses the playoffs, gets reasonably lucky in the lottery to get a good draft pick in a deep-ass draft. Then, the players mature, grow together and improve on their 13th ranked offense. The only thing holding them back may be their 18th ranked defense. Oh yeah, they have Bill Rusell's older brother joining the team next year. I'd say the future looks pretty bright in Portland.
9. Utah Jazz (25-18): The Jazz were the fourth seed in the playoffs last season with 51 wins. They're on pace to finish with three fewer and are currently out of the playoffs. Man, the West is deep this year. Meanwhile, the Pacers are currently on pace to make the playoffs in the East by finishing with 35 wins. Deron Williams (19.2 points, 9.3 assists, 52/40/78 shooting) is probably the second best point guard in the NBA behind Nash. Some prefer Chris Paul, but I love watching Deron despite his role in The Unmentionable Game of 2005. Carlos Boozer is good, but wouldn't be as good without Deron. The Jazz have the third best offense, but only the 15th best defense. 49 wins, first round exit.
10. Houston (24-19): After winning 52 games last year, a lot of people (including me) predicted them making a jump to say, 57 wins. My reasoning was they already had a solid defensive rotation, and Rick Adleman would improve the offense. I thought it would be like the 2006 Pistons after adding Flip Saunders' offense to Larry Brown's defense, but with Adleman and Jeff Van Gundy. Currently, they're on pace to win 46 games, which is usually playoff-worthy, but not this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck up and stole a playoff spot. 48 wins, either miss the playoffs, or first round exit.
11. Sacramento Kings (18-24): Remember how fun the Kings were back in '02 with Bibby, Christie, Stojakovic, Webber, Divac, Jackson, and Turkoglu? Yeah. Me, too. 38 wins.
12. Los Angeles Clippers (13-26): Now these are the Clippers we're used to. No more making the playoffs and almost beating the Suns in the conference semis. During the Clippers' anomoly in 2006, Chris Kaman averaged 11.9 and 9.6. Last year, 10.1 and 7.8. This year? How about 17.2 and 13.9, and 3 blocks? Granted, his numbers are inflated by the absence of Elton Brand, and he's just putting up good numbers on a bad team, but still. 17 and 14? Chris Kaman? 27 wins.
13. Memphis Grizzlies (12-31): Something interesting about Memphis? Hmm. Something interesting about Memphis... Ooo I got it. Did you know that Elvis was from Memphis? Yeah, I figured you would. Well, did you know that they're exhibit B in my case for conctraction in the NBA? Can you guess who exhibit A is????? 23 wins
14. Seattle Supersonics (9-34): Seattle is really bad. Dead last in offensive efficiency. Durant has been just awful this year. 19/4/2 on 40/29/86 shooting. I'm not sure what inspired Coach Carlesimo's decision to make Durant shoot the ball every time he touched it. I'm not sure how that's going to help him in the long run. It's like he's trying to turn Durant into someone I won't want to watch. To be fair, he's still only 19 (about 10 months younger than 20-year old freshman O.J. Mayo), so he kinda gets a pass, but make no mistakes, he has sucked ass this year. 19 wins.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (7-35): By far the worst team in the NBA. 28th best offense, 30th best defense. Sebastian Telfair has a 64-191 career record. His teams win just over 25% of the time. His teams have finished 26th, 30th, 29th in the standings, and the T-wolves are currently a lock to finish 30th this season. He isn't just doing this with one team, either. He's with his third team. This guy had a documentary crew follow him his senior season of high school. He is currently averaging 9.8 points on 40.4% shooting and 5.9 assists, all career highs. 15 wins.
Friday, January 25, 2008
First Half Review Part I
There have been 623 NBA games so far this season, which means it’s time for DBT’s first ever midseason review.
Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Celtics (33-7): They’re really good. They started out playing with playoff intensity and had the record to show for it. However, they have cooled off recently. Barring injuries, they’ll win about 62-65 games, I’m guessing. They should definitely be playing in the NBA finals. Anything less would be a disappointment.
2. Detroit Pistons (30-13): They’re also good. Again. No one really wants to talk about them, including me, but they just keep plugging away. They started 26-7, but have since gone 4-6. I’m going to predict 54 wins and a loss in the conference semis if they meet the Cavs, or in the finals if they face the Magic or someone else in the semis. A telling moment for the Pistons was after the Celtics beat them, and Chauncey Billups derided the Celtics’ celebration: “They're a little more happy than we were when we won our game at their place. It was just a regular game for us with two good teams playing. They were kind of playing like it was the Super Bowl. There was probably more at stake for them and their psyche than it was for us.” Remember not long ago when the Pistons were the team that outworked other teams, instead of walking around with a sense of entitlement? Despite their certainty that they’ll just turn up the intensity in the playoffs, they’ve choked each of the last two years, almost losing to the 50-win Cavs before falling to the 52-win Heat in 2006, then being a missed Donyell Marshall three-pointer *cough*Lebron’steammatessuck*cough* and a no-call hack from Prince on Lebron from being swept. They went on to lose that series anyway. I expect the same thing this year.
3. Orlando Magic (27-17): They’re very streaky. They started 14-3, then went 4-8, then 4-0, then 2-6, then 3-0. I don’t know what kind of team they are. They play like a 60-win team for a stretch, then a forty-win team for a stretch. I don’t know what the hell is their deal. What I do know is that Dwight Howard is awesome. 22 points, 15 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 60 fg%, and he just turned 22. He actually has post moves this year outside of backing his man down and dunking, or catching alley-oops for dunks, or some other kinds of dunks I can’t think of right now. He still has plenty of room to grow. His free throw shooting is bad (60%), but he can live with that. He also turns the ball over a lot, and doesn’t make his teammates better, at least not as much as he should. These should get better with time though. If he does, he might actually be a better centerpiece to build a team around than Lebron James, which has been unthinkable for me since I saw Lebron in his senior year of high school. Maybe. Last note on Dwight: he hasn’t missed a game in his 3.5 year, 290 game career. Bill Simmons writes that Dwight’s devout Christianity (i.e. no smoking, drinking, partying) will slow the aging process relative to other players so he will be awesome for a long time. I’ll predict 49 wins for the Magic.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (23-18): They started out 12-16, but have since gone 11-2. The poor record to start the year was due in part to holdouts from Varejao and Pavlovic. When they have their whole team together, they are actually very good. Far from missing the playoffs, as Charles Barkley predicted, I think they pose the biggest challenge to the Celtics in the East. When the Cavs have their whole team (not counting the presence or absence of Marshall, Larry Hughes, or Eric Snow, all of whom blow), they are 14-6. They have the same underrated defense of last year and an offense that has improved over last year’s offense, which was described by someone as the “random offense,” where Lebron would receive the ball far from the basket, and then randomly create a play. The Cavs’ three big-men rotation is underrated. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and Varejao each average over ten rebounds per 36 minutes played, and they play solid floptastic defense. Lebron’s cast sucks in many ways, but these guys are solid role players, as is Daniel Gibson (46 fg%, 48% 3p%). It wouldn’t be a horrible idea if they traded one of their three bigs (probably Gooden) for a point guard. I’ll predict a third consecutive 50-32 season for the Cavs. By the way, I didn’t forget to talk about Lebron during the Cavs review. The post where I declare my man-crush on Lebron deserves a post of its own.
5. Washington Wizards (22-18): They’re the same team they’ve been the last few years: Not “good” good, or “bad” bad; just a little above .500, depending on everyone’s health. This year, they’ve been without Gilbert Arenas for most of the year without skipping a beat. This is because Gilbert is a shooter with average efficiency who doesn’t play great defense or make his teammates better. I wouldn’t say the Wizards are better off without Arenas but they sure aren’t much worse. The Wizards would be better off trading him for a big man since their big men blow, and their absence of a decent big man is hurting them more that the absence of Arenas. 45-37, first round playoff exit.
6. Toronto Raptors (23-19): Another team that’s the same as last year. Not much to say, but it’s worth pointing out that Chris Bosh has averaged 25.4 points and 10.3 over his last 19 games. Also, Jose Calderon is averaging 12.1 points and 8.5 assists, including 14.5 points and 9.6 assists since T.J. Ford’s injury. Also, he’s only averaging 1.6 turnovers per game, good enough for a 5.4 a/to ratio. Most surprising, however, are his shooting percentages: .514, .435, .919. The only players who have shot 50/40/90 for a season are Larry Bird (1987 and 1988), Reggie Miller (1994), Steve Nash (2006 and so far this season), and Dirk Nowitzki (2007). Pretty good company as far as shooting goes. 45 wins, first round playoff exit.
7. Atlanta Hawks (17-21): They Hawks are on pace to win 37 games and to make the playoffs. Not even the worst team in the playoffs at that. My point being: the Eastern Conference still sucks. I don’t care about the Hawks, but that might change if I got a chance to watch Josh Smith play more. He averages 18.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.9 steals, and 3.3 blocks. If he’s as fun to look at as his box scores are, I’m missing out. 30-37 wins, first round playoff loss if they hang on to make the playoffs.
8. Indiana (19-25): Blah blah blah Jermaine O’neal overrated blah blah blah blah. 35 or so wins, no second round of the playoffs.
9. New Jersey Nets (18-24): This team is going nowhere fast. They don’t inspire one with any feeling either positive or negative. They’re the poor man’s Pistons. Does anyone get excited about watching them play? 26th best offense, 25th best defense, 19th fastest pace. Jason Kidd gets a bunch of triple doubles. Richard Jefferson is surprisingly scoring 24 points per game and leading the NBA in free throws made as of my typing this. 38 wins, first round playoff exit.
10. Chicago (17-24): A lot of people (including me) were picking the Bulls to get 50+ wins, yet they’re on pace for 34. I don’t know why they suddenly began to suck. People have their own theories, but I don’t care enough to theorize. It wouldn’t be that shocking for them to make a run or a semi-run to get into the playoffs especially since the wins cut-off for the playoffs will likely be in the high 30’s. However, they don’t look like they’re ever going to play how people expected. 37 wins, maybe playoffs, maybe not.
11. Milwaukee Bucks (17-26): Another team it’s hard to care about. Yi Jianlin’s rookie season hasn’t been a great story. He’s too good to be a punchline like Darko Milicic. He’s not good enough for me to watch him for his own merits. He’s just average. Redd is a really good shooter. 30 wins.
12. Charlotte Bobcats (16-26): 31 wins. Next.
13. Philadelphia (16-27): Andre Iguodala is really good. I’d say he’s probably the best player out of the U of A ever. This season, he’s averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds 4.6 assists, and 2.2 steals. The main criticism of Andre is that he’s not someone you can build a team around. Which is fine. He’s like Scottie Pippen in that he’s a great second option. If he’s ever teamed up with Lebron, and they have a good coach, and some decent shooters, you can just pencil them in for the next 12 championships. Unfortunately, neither Samuel Dalembert nor Andre Miller play like Lebron. 30 wins.
14. New York Knicks (13-28): What hasn’t already been said about the Knicks? I don’t know. I’ll just point out that they have no more than four guys I’d conceivably tolerate on a team I liked: David Lee (a nice complimentary/hustle/chemistry player and a good rebounder), and Fred Jones, Renaldo Balkman, and Jared Jeffries (as 8th to 10th men types). Their “stars” are the kinds of players that make people disavow their fandom of their team and of all basketball. Stephon Marbury, Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford. Ech. I was watching the Celtics play the Knicks a few days ago, and I got to see Nate Robinson celebrating good plays like a lunatic. If only I were as easily impressed by him as he is. The Knicks lost (duh) by 16, which, come to think of it, is cause for celebration when their previous meeting resulted in a 45 point loss.
15. Miami Heat (8-33): They’re 104-101 over the past three seasons (and sure to fall below .500 before the end of the year), and yet they have a championship while the Suns are 145-62 over that span, and have yet to even make a Finals. Shaq is old and sucks. Dwyane Wade is overrated. Remember when people kept saying his performance in the 2006 playoffs was Jordan-like? Remember when he was seriously put forth as an MVP candidate well into last season when Miami was floating around .500? He’s good, but he’s not that good. Did I mention they’re on a 15-game losing streak? I do, however, see them picking it up in the second half of the season and finishing with 21 wins. Enjoy your rings, losers.
Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Celtics (33-7): They’re really good. They started out playing with playoff intensity and had the record to show for it. However, they have cooled off recently. Barring injuries, they’ll win about 62-65 games, I’m guessing. They should definitely be playing in the NBA finals. Anything less would be a disappointment.
2. Detroit Pistons (30-13): They’re also good. Again. No one really wants to talk about them, including me, but they just keep plugging away. They started 26-7, but have since gone 4-6. I’m going to predict 54 wins and a loss in the conference semis if they meet the Cavs, or in the finals if they face the Magic or someone else in the semis. A telling moment for the Pistons was after the Celtics beat them, and Chauncey Billups derided the Celtics’ celebration: “They're a little more happy than we were when we won our game at their place. It was just a regular game for us with two good teams playing. They were kind of playing like it was the Super Bowl. There was probably more at stake for them and their psyche than it was for us.” Remember not long ago when the Pistons were the team that outworked other teams, instead of walking around with a sense of entitlement? Despite their certainty that they’ll just turn up the intensity in the playoffs, they’ve choked each of the last two years, almost losing to the 50-win Cavs before falling to the 52-win Heat in 2006, then being a missed Donyell Marshall three-pointer *cough*Lebron’steammatessuck*cough* and a no-call hack from Prince on Lebron from being swept. They went on to lose that series anyway. I expect the same thing this year.
3. Orlando Magic (27-17): They’re very streaky. They started 14-3, then went 4-8, then 4-0, then 2-6, then 3-0. I don’t know what kind of team they are. They play like a 60-win team for a stretch, then a forty-win team for a stretch. I don’t know what the hell is their deal. What I do know is that Dwight Howard is awesome. 22 points, 15 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 60 fg%, and he just turned 22. He actually has post moves this year outside of backing his man down and dunking, or catching alley-oops for dunks, or some other kinds of dunks I can’t think of right now. He still has plenty of room to grow. His free throw shooting is bad (60%), but he can live with that. He also turns the ball over a lot, and doesn’t make his teammates better, at least not as much as he should. These should get better with time though. If he does, he might actually be a better centerpiece to build a team around than Lebron James, which has been unthinkable for me since I saw Lebron in his senior year of high school. Maybe. Last note on Dwight: he hasn’t missed a game in his 3.5 year, 290 game career. Bill Simmons writes that Dwight’s devout Christianity (i.e. no smoking, drinking, partying) will slow the aging process relative to other players so he will be awesome for a long time. I’ll predict 49 wins for the Magic.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (23-18): They started out 12-16, but have since gone 11-2. The poor record to start the year was due in part to holdouts from Varejao and Pavlovic. When they have their whole team together, they are actually very good. Far from missing the playoffs, as Charles Barkley predicted, I think they pose the biggest challenge to the Celtics in the East. When the Cavs have their whole team (not counting the presence or absence of Marshall, Larry Hughes, or Eric Snow, all of whom blow), they are 14-6. They have the same underrated defense of last year and an offense that has improved over last year’s offense, which was described by someone as the “random offense,” where Lebron would receive the ball far from the basket, and then randomly create a play. The Cavs’ three big-men rotation is underrated. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and Varejao each average over ten rebounds per 36 minutes played, and they play solid floptastic defense. Lebron’s cast sucks in many ways, but these guys are solid role players, as is Daniel Gibson (46 fg%, 48% 3p%). It wouldn’t be a horrible idea if they traded one of their three bigs (probably Gooden) for a point guard. I’ll predict a third consecutive 50-32 season for the Cavs. By the way, I didn’t forget to talk about Lebron during the Cavs review. The post where I declare my man-crush on Lebron deserves a post of its own.
5. Washington Wizards (22-18): They’re the same team they’ve been the last few years: Not “good” good, or “bad” bad; just a little above .500, depending on everyone’s health. This year, they’ve been without Gilbert Arenas for most of the year without skipping a beat. This is because Gilbert is a shooter with average efficiency who doesn’t play great defense or make his teammates better. I wouldn’t say the Wizards are better off without Arenas but they sure aren’t much worse. The Wizards would be better off trading him for a big man since their big men blow, and their absence of a decent big man is hurting them more that the absence of Arenas. 45-37, first round playoff exit.
6. Toronto Raptors (23-19): Another team that’s the same as last year. Not much to say, but it’s worth pointing out that Chris Bosh has averaged 25.4 points and 10.3 over his last 19 games. Also, Jose Calderon is averaging 12.1 points and 8.5 assists, including 14.5 points and 9.6 assists since T.J. Ford’s injury. Also, he’s only averaging 1.6 turnovers per game, good enough for a 5.4 a/to ratio. Most surprising, however, are his shooting percentages: .514, .435, .919. The only players who have shot 50/40/90 for a season are Larry Bird (1987 and 1988), Reggie Miller (1994), Steve Nash (2006 and so far this season), and Dirk Nowitzki (2007). Pretty good company as far as shooting goes. 45 wins, first round playoff exit.
7. Atlanta Hawks (17-21): They Hawks are on pace to win 37 games and to make the playoffs. Not even the worst team in the playoffs at that. My point being: the Eastern Conference still sucks. I don’t care about the Hawks, but that might change if I got a chance to watch Josh Smith play more. He averages 18.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.9 steals, and 3.3 blocks. If he’s as fun to look at as his box scores are, I’m missing out. 30-37 wins, first round playoff loss if they hang on to make the playoffs.
8. Indiana (19-25): Blah blah blah Jermaine O’neal overrated blah blah blah blah. 35 or so wins, no second round of the playoffs.
9. New Jersey Nets (18-24): This team is going nowhere fast. They don’t inspire one with any feeling either positive or negative. They’re the poor man’s Pistons. Does anyone get excited about watching them play? 26th best offense, 25th best defense, 19th fastest pace. Jason Kidd gets a bunch of triple doubles. Richard Jefferson is surprisingly scoring 24 points per game and leading the NBA in free throws made as of my typing this. 38 wins, first round playoff exit.
10. Chicago (17-24): A lot of people (including me) were picking the Bulls to get 50+ wins, yet they’re on pace for 34. I don’t know why they suddenly began to suck. People have their own theories, but I don’t care enough to theorize. It wouldn’t be that shocking for them to make a run or a semi-run to get into the playoffs especially since the wins cut-off for the playoffs will likely be in the high 30’s. However, they don’t look like they’re ever going to play how people expected. 37 wins, maybe playoffs, maybe not.
11. Milwaukee Bucks (17-26): Another team it’s hard to care about. Yi Jianlin’s rookie season hasn’t been a great story. He’s too good to be a punchline like Darko Milicic. He’s not good enough for me to watch him for his own merits. He’s just average. Redd is a really good shooter. 30 wins.
12. Charlotte Bobcats (16-26): 31 wins. Next.
13. Philadelphia (16-27): Andre Iguodala is really good. I’d say he’s probably the best player out of the U of A ever. This season, he’s averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds 4.6 assists, and 2.2 steals. The main criticism of Andre is that he’s not someone you can build a team around. Which is fine. He’s like Scottie Pippen in that he’s a great second option. If he’s ever teamed up with Lebron, and they have a good coach, and some decent shooters, you can just pencil them in for the next 12 championships. Unfortunately, neither Samuel Dalembert nor Andre Miller play like Lebron. 30 wins.
14. New York Knicks (13-28): What hasn’t already been said about the Knicks? I don’t know. I’ll just point out that they have no more than four guys I’d conceivably tolerate on a team I liked: David Lee (a nice complimentary/hustle/chemistry player and a good rebounder), and Fred Jones, Renaldo Balkman, and Jared Jeffries (as 8th to 10th men types). Their “stars” are the kinds of players that make people disavow their fandom of their team and of all basketball. Stephon Marbury, Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford. Ech. I was watching the Celtics play the Knicks a few days ago, and I got to see Nate Robinson celebrating good plays like a lunatic. If only I were as easily impressed by him as he is. The Knicks lost (duh) by 16, which, come to think of it, is cause for celebration when their previous meeting resulted in a 45 point loss.
15. Miami Heat (8-33): They’re 104-101 over the past three seasons (and sure to fall below .500 before the end of the year), and yet they have a championship while the Suns are 145-62 over that span, and have yet to even make a Finals. Shaq is old and sucks. Dwyane Wade is overrated. Remember when people kept saying his performance in the 2006 playoffs was Jordan-like? Remember when he was seriously put forth as an MVP candidate well into last season when Miami was floating around .500? He’s good, but he’s not that good. Did I mention they’re on a 15-game losing streak? I do, however, see them picking it up in the second half of the season and finishing with 21 wins. Enjoy your rings, losers.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Happy New Year
Due to the overwhelming show of support from all my fan, I've decided to bring back David's Basketball Thoughts.
The beginning of the new year seemed like a good enough time to restart DBT. Unfortunately, and with all due respect to college basketball, Euroleague, and all other non-NBA basketball, the basketball year starts when the NBA season starts in late-ass October or early-ass November. Since I don't feel like waiting until next November, I've decided to start on the first day of 2008.
More posts coming soon...
The beginning of the new year seemed like a good enough time to restart DBT. Unfortunately, and with all due respect to college basketball, Euroleague, and all other non-NBA basketball, the basketball year starts when the NBA season starts in late-ass October or early-ass November. Since I don't feel like waiting until next November, I've decided to start on the first day of 2008.
More posts coming soon...
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