First Half Review Part II

Western Conference:

1. New Orleans Hornets (30-12): On pace to win 59 games, the Hornets are one of the more pleasant suprises in the NBA this season. Chris Paul (48/36/89 shooting, 20.7 points, 10.5 assists, 2.6 steals) is one of the top 3 point guards in the NBA. They have the 8th most efficient offense and the third most efficient defense. The Hornets have two of the most underrated players in the NBA in David West (19.4 points, 9.3 rebounds) and Tyson Chandler (12.3 points, 12.3 rebounds). Best of all they've quietly won 15 of 17 since starting 15-10. 60 wins, second round playoff loss.

2. Phoenix (31-13): They are on pace to finish about the same place as the last few seasons, but this year they have their worst chance of winning a championship since Steve Nash rejoined the Suns. They get murdered by any big man, especially on the boards. They got rid of Kurt Thomas, and signed the poor man's Kurt Thomas, Brian Skinner, whom D'Antoni never plays. (Skinner isn't bad, but Thomas was better). They get outrebounded by 5.7 per game (worst in the league), give up 14.1 offensive rebounds per game (ditto), and have the 20th most efficient defense. Amare Stoudemire isn't is good as he thinks he is, and can't guard centers to save his life. Steve Nash is a basketball playing machine. He makes the right decision every time. His statistics during his second Phoenix stint: 17.7 points, 11.3 assists, 51.6/45/90.3 shooting. The Suns have gone 208-82 (59-23) with him, and 4-13 (19-63) without him. Also he's been on the league's top scoring team each of the last seven seasons. 58 wins, second round of playoffs, but I could easily see them going further depending on matchups.

3. Dallas Mavericks (29-13): They're obviously trying to build towards the playoffs, and win there instead of in the regular season. In other words, the exact opposite of last year. I can't feel comfortable ruling them out since they did win 67 games last year, and almost won it all the year before. I don't think they'll win, but nobody's talking about them this year, and they're still dangerous as hell. 58 wins, conference finals.

4. Denver Nuggets (26-16): The Nuggets actually have the sixth best record, but each division has to have at least one top-four seed, so here they are. They have a surprisingly good defense (6th in the league) thanks in large part to Marcus Camby (14.4 rebounds, 3.9 blocks). Their offense is only average, though (14th). Carmelo Anthony is a lot more fun to watch on Team USA than when he's on the Nuggets. In part, this is because he is made better by his teammates, but he doesn't make them better. When he plays with Denver, he's expected to be the centerpiece, but with Team USA, other players raise his play. According to my projected standings, the Nuggets are currently on pace to finish only .3 games ahead of number 9 Utah Jazz. If they do hang on to make the playoffs, they'll lost in the first round for the fifth straight year. 48 wins.

5. San Antonio Spurs (28-13): Going in to the season, I really thought the Spurs were going to dominate the league. After winning their fourth championship, all they had left to prove was to repeat. My prediction looked pretty good when the Spurs started 17-3, but then they went 8-10 before winning their last three. I think the Spurs may actually be done with their championships now. We all know they're coasting until the playoffs, but I just don't see them as being good enough this year. It's hard choosing against them, but it has to end some time. Then again, no teams look that great, so they could win by default, like their first 4 championships. 56 wins, championship.

6. Los Angeles Lakers (27-14): I'm guessing Kobe is glad he wasn't traded to the Bulls after all. This is the first year that Kobe is actually making his teammates better. Andrew Bynum (13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 64% shooting, 2.1 blocks) is good, and will be really good soon. I hate to say this, but when the Lakers are running the triangle, they're actually pretty fun to watch. They are the third highest scoring team in the league at 107.3 points per game, behind only the Suns and the Warriors. They're balanced, and Phil Jackson's teams tend to do better in the postseason than in the regular season. Kobe Bryant still has horrible shot selection. Anyone who is as good a shooter as he is, who can drive to the basket as well as he can, and who plays in an offense like the triangle, should shoot a lot better than 45%. Andrew Bynum's absence will drop their record to 53 wins, conference finals, but they could go all the way. Of course, it won't be "pretty fun to watch" Kobe and Phil winning another ring. God help me if this happens.

7. Golden State Warriors (26-18): They run and score a lot and give up a lot of points. That pretty much sums them up. 48 wins, either no playoffs or first round exit.

8. Portland Trailblazers (25-18): Brandon Roy is pretty good. Portland has the youngest team in the league and the third youngest team ever, or so I've read somewhere. They may not hold on to a playoff spot, but just imagine the following scenario: Portland wins 45-48 games, misses the playoffs, gets reasonably lucky in the lottery to get a good draft pick in a deep-ass draft. Then, the players mature, grow together and improve on their 13th ranked offense. The only thing holding them back may be their 18th ranked defense. Oh yeah, they have Bill Rusell's older brother joining the team next year. I'd say the future looks pretty bright in Portland.

9. Utah Jazz (25-18): The Jazz were the fourth seed in the playoffs last season with 51 wins. They're on pace to finish with three fewer and are currently out of the playoffs. Man, the West is deep this year. Meanwhile, the Pacers are currently on pace to make the playoffs in the East by finishing with 35 wins. Deron Williams (19.2 points, 9.3 assists, 52/40/78 shooting) is probably the second best point guard in the NBA behind Nash. Some prefer Chris Paul, but I love watching Deron despite his role in The Unmentionable Game of 2005. Carlos Boozer is good, but wouldn't be as good without Deron. The Jazz have the third best offense, but only the 15th best defense. 49 wins, first round exit.

10. Houston (24-19): After winning 52 games last year, a lot of people (including me) predicted them making a jump to say, 57 wins. My reasoning was they already had a solid defensive rotation, and Rick Adleman would improve the offense. I thought it would be like the 2006 Pistons after adding Flip Saunders' offense to Larry Brown's defense, but with Adleman and Jeff Van Gundy. Currently, they're on pace to win 46 games, which is usually playoff-worthy, but not this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck up and stole a playoff spot. 48 wins, either miss the playoffs, or first round exit.

11. Sacramento Kings (18-24): Remember how fun the Kings were back in '02 with Bibby, Christie, Stojakovic, Webber, Divac, Jackson, and Turkoglu? Yeah. Me, too. 38 wins.

12. Los Angeles Clippers (13-26): Now these are the Clippers we're used to. No more making the playoffs and almost beating the Suns in the conference semis. During the Clippers' anomoly in 2006, Chris Kaman averaged 11.9 and 9.6. Last year, 10.1 and 7.8. This year? How about 17.2 and 13.9, and 3 blocks? Granted, his numbers are inflated by the absence of Elton Brand, and he's just putting up good numbers on a bad team, but still. 17 and 14? Chris Kaman? 27 wins.

13. Memphis Grizzlies (12-31): Something interesting about Memphis? Hmm. Something interesting about Memphis... Ooo I got it. Did you know that Elvis was from Memphis? Yeah, I figured you would. Well, did you know that they're exhibit B in my case for conctraction in the NBA? Can you guess who exhibit A is????? 23 wins

14. Seattle Supersonics (9-34): Seattle is really bad. Dead last in offensive efficiency. Durant has been just awful this year. 19/4/2 on 40/29/86 shooting. I'm not sure what inspired Coach Carlesimo's decision to make Durant shoot the ball every time he touched it. I'm not sure how that's going to help him in the long run. It's like he's trying to turn Durant into someone I won't want to watch. To be fair, he's still only 19 (about 10 months younger than 20-year old freshman O.J. Mayo), so he kinda gets a pass, but make no mistakes, he has sucked ass this year. 19 wins.

15. Minnesota Timberwolves (7-35): By far the worst team in the NBA. 28th best offense, 30th best defense. Sebastian Telfair has a 64-191 career record. His teams win just over 25% of the time. His teams have finished 26th, 30th, 29th in the standings, and the T-wolves are currently a lock to finish 30th this season. He isn't just doing this with one team, either. He's with his third team. This guy had a documentary crew follow him his senior season of high school. He is currently averaging 9.8 points on 40.4% shooting and 5.9 assists, all career highs. 15 wins.