First Half Review Part I

There have been 623 NBA games so far this season, which means it’s time for DBT’s first ever midseason review.

Eastern Conference:

1. Boston Celtics (33-7): They’re really good. They started out playing with playoff intensity and had the record to show for it. However, they have cooled off recently. Barring injuries, they’ll win about 62-65 games, I’m guessing. They should definitely be playing in the NBA finals. Anything less would be a disappointment.

2. Detroit Pistons (30-13): They’re also good. Again. No one really wants to talk about them, including me, but they just keep plugging away. They started 26-7, but have since gone 4-6. I’m going to predict 54 wins and a loss in the conference semis if they meet the Cavs, or in the finals if they face the Magic or someone else in the semis. A telling moment for the Pistons was after the Celtics beat them, and Chauncey Billups derided the Celtics’ celebration: “They're a little more happy than we were when we won our game at their place. It was just a regular game for us with two good teams playing. They were kind of playing like it was the Super Bowl. There was probably more at stake for them and their psyche than it was for us.” Remember not long ago when the Pistons were the team that outworked other teams, instead of walking around with a sense of entitlement? Despite their certainty that they’ll just turn up the intensity in the playoffs, they’ve choked each of the last two years, almost losing to the 50-win Cavs before falling to the 52-win Heat in 2006, then being a missed Donyell Marshall three-pointer *cough*Lebron’steammatessuck*cough* and a no-call hack from Prince on Lebron from being swept. They went on to lose that series anyway. I expect the same thing this year.

3. Orlando Magic (27-17): They’re very streaky. They started 14-3, then went 4-8, then 4-0, then 2-6, then 3-0. I don’t know what kind of team they are. They play like a 60-win team for a stretch, then a forty-win team for a stretch. I don’t know what the hell is their deal. What I do know is that Dwight Howard is awesome. 22 points, 15 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 60 fg%, and he just turned 22. He actually has post moves this year outside of backing his man down and dunking, or catching alley-oops for dunks, or some other kinds of dunks I can’t think of right now. He still has plenty of room to grow. His free throw shooting is bad (60%), but he can live with that. He also turns the ball over a lot, and doesn’t make his teammates better, at least not as much as he should. These should get better with time though. If he does, he might actually be a better centerpiece to build a team around than Lebron James, which has been unthinkable for me since I saw Lebron in his senior year of high school. Maybe. Last note on Dwight: he hasn’t missed a game in his 3.5 year, 290 game career. Bill Simmons writes that Dwight’s devout Christianity (i.e. no smoking, drinking, partying) will slow the aging process relative to other players so he will be awesome for a long time. I’ll predict 49 wins for the Magic.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (23-18): They started out 12-16, but have since gone 11-2. The poor record to start the year was due in part to holdouts from Varejao and Pavlovic. When they have their whole team together, they are actually very good. Far from missing the playoffs, as Charles Barkley predicted, I think they pose the biggest challenge to the Celtics in the East. When the Cavs have their whole team (not counting the presence or absence of Marshall, Larry Hughes, or Eric Snow, all of whom blow), they are 14-6. They have the same underrated defense of last year and an offense that has improved over last year’s offense, which was described by someone as the “random offense,” where Lebron would receive the ball far from the basket, and then randomly create a play. The Cavs’ three big-men rotation is underrated. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and Varejao each average over ten rebounds per 36 minutes played, and they play solid floptastic defense. Lebron’s cast sucks in many ways, but these guys are solid role players, as is Daniel Gibson (46 fg%, 48% 3p%). It wouldn’t be a horrible idea if they traded one of their three bigs (probably Gooden) for a point guard. I’ll predict a third consecutive 50-32 season for the Cavs. By the way, I didn’t forget to talk about Lebron during the Cavs review. The post where I declare my man-crush on Lebron deserves a post of its own.

5. Washington Wizards (22-18): They’re the same team they’ve been the last few years: Not “good” good, or “bad” bad; just a little above .500, depending on everyone’s health. This year, they’ve been without Gilbert Arenas for most of the year without skipping a beat. This is because Gilbert is a shooter with average efficiency who doesn’t play great defense or make his teammates better. I wouldn’t say the Wizards are better off without Arenas but they sure aren’t much worse. The Wizards would be better off trading him for a big man since their big men blow, and their absence of a decent big man is hurting them more that the absence of Arenas. 45-37, first round playoff exit.

6. Toronto Raptors (23-19): Another team that’s the same as last year. Not much to say, but it’s worth pointing out that Chris Bosh has averaged 25.4 points and 10.3 over his last 19 games. Also, Jose Calderon is averaging 12.1 points and 8.5 assists, including 14.5 points and 9.6 assists since T.J. Ford’s injury. Also, he’s only averaging 1.6 turnovers per game, good enough for a 5.4 a/to ratio. Most surprising, however, are his shooting percentages: .514, .435, .919. The only players who have shot 50/40/90 for a season are Larry Bird (1987 and 1988), Reggie Miller (1994), Steve Nash (2006 and so far this season), and Dirk Nowitzki (2007). Pretty good company as far as shooting goes. 45 wins, first round playoff exit.

7. Atlanta Hawks (17-21): They Hawks are on pace to win 37 games and to make the playoffs. Not even the worst team in the playoffs at that. My point being: the Eastern Conference still sucks. I don’t care about the Hawks, but that might change if I got a chance to watch Josh Smith play more. He averages 18.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.9 steals, and 3.3 blocks. If he’s as fun to look at as his box scores are, I’m missing out. 30-37 wins, first round playoff loss if they hang on to make the playoffs.

8. Indiana (19-25): Blah blah blah Jermaine O’neal overrated blah blah blah blah. 35 or so wins, no second round of the playoffs.

9. New Jersey Nets (18-24): This team is going nowhere fast. They don’t inspire one with any feeling either positive or negative. They’re the poor man’s Pistons. Does anyone get excited about watching them play? 26th best offense, 25th best defense, 19th fastest pace. Jason Kidd gets a bunch of triple doubles. Richard Jefferson is surprisingly scoring 24 points per game and leading the NBA in free throws made as of my typing this. 38 wins, first round playoff exit.

10. Chicago (17-24): A lot of people (including me) were picking the Bulls to get 50+ wins, yet they’re on pace for 34. I don’t know why they suddenly began to suck. People have their own theories, but I don’t care enough to theorize. It wouldn’t be that shocking for them to make a run or a semi-run to get into the playoffs especially since the wins cut-off for the playoffs will likely be in the high 30’s. However, they don’t look like they’re ever going to play how people expected. 37 wins, maybe playoffs, maybe not.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (17-26): Another team it’s hard to care about. Yi Jianlin’s rookie season hasn’t been a great story. He’s too good to be a punchline like Darko Milicic. He’s not good enough for me to watch him for his own merits. He’s just average. Redd is a really good shooter. 30 wins.

12. Charlotte Bobcats (16-26): 31 wins. Next.

13. Philadelphia (16-27): Andre Iguodala is really good. I’d say he’s probably the best player out of the U of A ever. This season, he’s averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds 4.6 assists, and 2.2 steals. The main criticism of Andre is that he’s not someone you can build a team around. Which is fine. He’s like Scottie Pippen in that he’s a great second option. If he’s ever teamed up with Lebron, and they have a good coach, and some decent shooters, you can just pencil them in for the next 12 championships. Unfortunately, neither Samuel Dalembert nor Andre Miller play like Lebron. 30 wins.

14. New York Knicks (13-28): What hasn’t already been said about the Knicks? I don’t know. I’ll just point out that they have no more than four guys I’d conceivably tolerate on a team I liked: David Lee (a nice complimentary/hustle/chemistry player and a good rebounder), and Fred Jones, Renaldo Balkman, and Jared Jeffries (as 8th to 10th men types). Their “stars” are the kinds of players that make people disavow their fandom of their team and of all basketball. Stephon Marbury, Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford. Ech. I was watching the Celtics play the Knicks a few days ago, and I got to see Nate Robinson celebrating good plays like a lunatic. If only I were as easily impressed by him as he is. The Knicks lost (duh) by 16, which, come to think of it, is cause for celebration when their previous meeting resulted in a 45 point loss.

15. Miami Heat (8-33): They’re 104-101 over the past three seasons (and sure to fall below .500 before the end of the year), and yet they have a championship while the Suns are 145-62 over that span, and have yet to even make a Finals. Shaq is old and sucks. Dwyane Wade is overrated. Remember when people kept saying his performance in the 2006 playoffs was Jordan-like? Remember when he was seriously put forth as an MVP candidate well into last season when Miami was floating around .500? He’s good, but he’s not that good. Did I mention they’re on a 15-game losing streak? I do, however, see them picking it up in the second half of the season and finishing with 21 wins. Enjoy your rings, losers.