First of all, a game only counts once. I keep reading "ASU swept UA and finished higher in conference." You do realize that ASU's better conference record includes the series sweep?
Now, let's compare the two teams. The regular season consists of two parts: conference season, and out-of conference (OOC). For the round robin conference season, ASU finished slightly ahead of Arizona, 9-9 versus 8-10. ASU therefore has a better case for making the tournament, unless Arizona had a significantly better OOC record.
Let's compare OOC records: Arizona went 9-3 against the fifth hardest strength of schedule (SOS)*, while ASU went 10-2 against the 296th highest SOS. Arizona therefore had an OOC RPI of 5*, compared to ASU's 110*.
And their respective overall records?: UA: 18-14 against the #2 SOS* for an RPI of 38*. ASU: 19-12 against the #77 SOS* for an RPI of 83*. Given that the approximate cutoff for non-conference-tournament-champions is traditionally an RPI of 40, is a team with an RPI of 83 more deserving of a bid than a team with an RPI of 38?
* All statistics from ken pomeroy
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2 comments:
This is so much like something I have posted by my desk at work, it's really scary. It looks like we pulled the same numbers from Pomeroy. My thing at work also includes a quote or 2 from the Selection Committee chair backing up our stats.
Yes, I get my RPI/SOS numbers from Pomeroy. I should have given credit the first time around. My bad.
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