NBA Playoffs 2008 Preview Part I: The Eastern Conference

First Round:

1 Boston Celtics
Record (pythagorean): 66-16 (67-15)
Home Record: 35-6
Away Record: 31-10
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1 (by far)

vs. 8 Atlanta Hawks
Record (pythagorean): 37-45 (36-46)
Home Record: 25-16
Away Record: 12-29
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18

Notes: Celtics in four. Not much else to say.

4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Record (pythagorean): 45-37 (40-42)
Home Record: 27-14
Away Record: 18-23
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11

vs. 5 Washington Wizards
Record (pythagorean): 43-39 (40-42)
Home Record: 25-16
Away Record: 18-23
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24

Notes: The Cavs are a better team than their record shows. Throw it the seven games Lebron missed (0-7) and they're a 49 win team. However, they're only 14-13 since the new guys joined the team. Washington, however, is the same team they've been the last few years. Arenas should help, but not much. Caron is their best and most important player. The Cavs should win, but with Coach Mike at the helm, who knows. Cavs in six.

3 Orlando Magic
Record (pythagorean): 52-30 (56-26)
Home Record: 25-16
Away Record: 27-14
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5

vs. 6 Toronto Raptors
Record (pythagorean): 41-41 (49-33)
Home Record: 25-16
Away Record: 16-25
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13

Notes: Both teams are better than their records indicate, but Orlando is just better. Magic in five.

2 Detroit Pistons
Record (pythagorean): 59-23 (62-20)
Home Record: 34-7
Away Record: 25-16
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4

vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Record (pythagorean): 40-42 (42-40)
Home Record: 22-19
Away Record: 18-23
Offensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8

Notes: In the 76ers' favor, they finished the season 24-14 after a 16-28 start. In the Pistons' favor, they have more experience, they're better, they didn't end the season on a four-game losing streak. Pistons in 5.

Second Round:

1 Boston Celtics vs. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers: There are a lot of reasons why the Cavaliers could knock off the Celtics: 1) A lot of players have playoff experience together from the last two years. 2) The Celtics have been playing with playoff intensity and focus all year, while the Cavaliers have been wavering between regular season intensity and pre-season intensity for much of the season. The effort gap will be closed in the playoffs. 3) The Cavaliers have been a better playoff team than a regular season team the last two seasons (very nearly knocked off 64-18 Pistons in 2006, and did knock off higher seeded Pistons last season) 4) The Celtics' best player isn't a clutch player. 5) The Cavs and Celtics split the season series, and one of the Celtics' wins was an 80-70 win over a Lebron-less Cavs team. Put Lebron on the team for that game, and the Cavs probably improve more than 10 points and end up 3-1 vs. Celtics.

Here's the thing. The gap between Boston and Cleveland is so immense that even if all the things above prove true, Boston is still significantly better than Cleveland and should win, albeit uncomfortably. Celtics in five.

2 Detroit Pistons vs. 3 Orlando Magic: Detroit has a lot more experience, but I think what's really going to make a difference is the point guard play. Billups is an excellent game manager, while Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo are not. Why else does Dwight Howard (20.7 point on 59.9% shooting) get only 11.9 field goal attempts per game? Playoff series are about adjustments and the Magic get taken out of Option A too often for my comfort. Pistons in five.

Conference Finals:

1 Boston Celtics vs. 2 Detroit Pistons: The Pistons used to be the hungry defensive team that outworked everyone, but since 2006, they've felt entitled to wins, and have played that way. I remember Chauncey Billups boasting that he was glad the Celtics were getting so much attention because that way, the Pistons could fly under the radar and win the playoffs in the end. But really, the Pistons are better. Just keep saying they're better, but we're better.

The point is that he wanted to make sure that the reporter knew that the Pistons were better. If the Pistons wanted to fly under the radar, they would have said that the Celtics were the team the beat instead of drawing attention to themselves. The Celtics will win in six, but the Pistons wil assure us that the better team lost.