Olympics Pool Play Review

You can see all the scores and standings here and the statistical leaders here. I won't summarize pool play because it's all right there.

Biggest (positive) surprise: Tie. China and USA. China lost to Greece and the USA by 31 points two years ago, to Spain by 25 four years ago. This year, they lost to a much better USA team by 31 points, lost to a better Greece team by 14, and had a double-digit lead to blow in the fourth quarter against Spain. The home-court advantage (and officiating) helped, but they were not the pushovers they have been in the past. Team USA came in as the favorite, a little ahead of Spain, and little more distance between them and Greece, Argentina, Russia, and Lithuania. After a 21-point win against Angola (whom they should have beaten by 40 on a bad day and 60 on a good one), they played at 85% potential (still didn't shoot well) against Greece, winning by 23, then obliterated the second best team, Spain, by 37, then finished pool play with a 49-point win over a respectable German team.

Biggest disappointment: Russia. The defending Eurobasket champions beat lowly Iran in the first game, then lost their next four, losing out on a spot in the quarterfinals to Croatia and Australia.

What else have we learned?
Even though Lithuania won Group A over Argentina, I think Argentina is better. Argentina is like the Spurs- they coast through the regular season, then turn it on when the games really count, like when they went 3-2 (including a 1-point win) in Athens, only to end up at the top of the heap on the last day.

Team USA will won gold. Duh. They're number one in scoring (103 ppg) and number one in scoring defense (70.8 ppg) despite playing at a much faster pace than most teams. Despite putting a lot of emphasis on forcing turnovers, and contrary to Doug Collins' bemoaning of Team USA's "feast or famine" defense, the Americans allow the lowest field goal percentage by a 7.3% margin over the number two team (36.6% to Lithuania's 42.9%), and the lowest three-pointer percentage by a 6.4% margin (26.9% to China's 33.3%). Even when teams don't turn the ball over, they struggle to get good looks. The only defensive blemish is the relatively poor rebounding. Three teams have a better rebound margin than USA's +2.2: Spain (+9.6), Croatia (+6.6), and Greece (+4.8). Offensively, they've only been firing on all cylinders for the last two games, and firing on most cylinders in the third to last game.

Angola and Iran are as bad as we thought they were.

Quarterfinal predictions:
Argentina vs. Greece: Argentina in a close one.
USA vs. Australia: USA in a not close one.
Spain vs. Croatia: Spain by 10.
Lithuania vs. China: Lithuania by eight.

Semis:
USA vs. Argentina: USA by 22.
Spain vs. Lithuania: Spain by 6.

Bronze medal game: Argentina over Lithuania by 10, resulting in Argentina's overtaking of the number one FIBA ranking.

Finals: USA over Spain by 17.