USA vs. Russia, Australia

Whereas the first three exhibition opponents were easily pulverized by Team USA, the last two, Russia and Australia offered resistance to Team USA, and in doing so, gave us a glimpse into the weaknesses that may be the downfall of Team USA.

USA vs. Russia: The story of this game is that after the first quarter, the USA looked like they were going to cruise to another 30+ point victory, but Russia played an effective 2-3 zone and kept it close. After a 29-17 first quarter, Team USA outscored Russia 60-51 the rest of the way for an 89-68 win. It should be kept in mind that Russia are the reigning Eurobasket champions, beating Greece, Lithuania, and Spain along the way to the title last summer. Even though Spain beat Russia 91-56 back on July 20th, I'm going to attribute that to Russia's rustiness and working out a rotation more than Spain's overwhelming superiority, unless Spain has advanced that much in the last 12 months, or Russia has regressed that much. Judging by the way Russia played against the USA, I doubt Spain beat that Russia by 35.

Anyway, Russia is good, and we should already know that Team USA isn't going to beat run everyone out of the gym. I would take a 21-point win over Russia any day of the week. That game was certainly no cause for panic, but it did raise some concerns. Even though Team USA's offense looked awful, and very similar to the last few years' versions, i.e. little ball movement, or player movement away from the ball, it was actually pretty effective, thanks mostly to Deron Williams' poking holes through the zone (9 assists, 0 turnovers), and a little to Kobe for keeping the USA ahead when Russia was making it close. Over the last three quarters, in a mostly half-court game, USA shot 57% from the field, and made four of eight three-pointers and eight of 12 free throws. They also had 14 assists and 10 turnovers, while forcing only 12 turnovers from Russia (in other words, few fastbreaks). The relative lack of offensive production had more to do with the slower pace of the game than with an ineffective offense. The defense was fine, too. Russia only shot 39.7% from the field, and 4-17 from three (23.5%). The real reason why the game was so close was the lack of control of the defensive boards. Russia had 12 offensive boards and won the overall rebounding battle 43-35, thanks in large part to Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, and Chris Bosh combining for one rebound in 38 minutes. Bottom line, they killed Russia, a legitimate medal contender by a lot. If they play every game like they did, would they win gold? Probably. If the three big men can avoid being quite so invisible on the boards, the answer would change to "definitely."

USA vs. Australia: Australia is not very good. They will most likely be competing with Croatia for fourth place in Group A and a chance to face the winner of Group B (USA or Spain) in the quarterfinals. The 2006 team beat Australia 113-73 in the round of 16. The 2004 team beat Australia 89-79. However, the "Redeem Team" was only leading 46-42 early in the third quarter after leading 44-29 at halftime. They pulled out an ugly 87-76 win. Again, the offense involved too much dribbling, too much isolation, and too little movement of players and of the ball. While the Americans only shot 3-18 from three, a lot of the shots looked really good leaving their hands. They also shot 20-33 (60.6%) from the free throw line, thanks to Dwight Howard's pathetic 0-fer-6. Look at it this way. Let's say USA had shot 6-18 from three instead (which is still comfortably below their 40% over the five games). Suddenly, it turns into a 96-76 win, which is a certified ass-whooping. I know that's a big if, and that they don't allow mulligans when the real games start, but it's comforting that the team's floor is such that they can not throw the ball in the ocean and still score 87 points. The defense, on the other hand, was not as comforting. Australia, who were playing without Andrew Bogut, shot 47.5 percent from the field, and made eight of 20 threes. If the USA plays like this in the real tournament, they will not win gold.

It's now clearer than ever that Team USA will not steamroll their opponents to the gold medal. However, there are a few bright spots to be taken away from the last two exhibitions. 1) These games were a wake-up call. The games will not be a series of uncontested alley-oops and one-on-zero fastbreaks. 2) Contrary to the claims of some, Team USA does in fact have an effective half-court offense. It can be ugly and it can struggle at times, but every team has lulls where they struggle to score, and teams don't get extra points for playing beautiful basketball. 3) Much of the ugliness of the Australia game can be attributed to the fact that they didn't practice the day before the game. A lot of times, especially in the third quarter, Australia was running the simple kind of plays that would have been stopped if the USA was prepared and had studied the scouting reports, which they probably will do in the real games. I consider it like the annual UA pre-Christmas game, when the team isn't really itself and so loses a game they should win or badly loses a game that should at least be close. If USA meets Australia in the medal round, I highly doubt Australia keeps it within 11 (or 20, for that matter). 4) When opponents made runs to make a game close, USA never panicked and calmly rebuilt the lead. When Lithuania cut 17-point half-time deficit to 9 points with a bunch of early third quarter threes, USA made some adjustments and went on a 14-3 run that put them ahead 75-55. When Russia was down just 10 with a few minutes left in the third, USA went on a 10-0 run that effectively put the game away. When Australia cut a 15-point half-time deficit to four points in the third quarter, USA went on a 7-2 mini-run, eventually building the lead to 16 with two minutes left in the game, before Australia whittled the final deficit to 11. On past teams, players responded to adversity with hero's complexes (2002), rattled confidence (2006), or plain old awfulness (2004). The leadership on this team raises the floor of this team and makes the team less vulnerable.