USA vs. Turkey and USA vs. Lithuania

While Canada sucks at basketball, Turkey is almost respectable, and Lithuania is probably one of the top six teams in the Olympics. Therefore, these two games revealed more about Team USA than the Canada game.

USA vs. Turkey:
Let's start out by examining how good Turkey is. In the 2007 and 2005 Eurobasket Championships, they went a combined 2-8, with the two wins coming against the Czech Republic in 2007 and Bulgaria in overtime in 2005. Last year's team suffered a 17-point loss to Lithuania, a 30-point loss to Germany, a 15-point loss to Slovenia, and a 21-point loss to France. At the 2006 WBC, they finished fifth behind Spain, Greece, USA, and Argentina, which looks impressive until you realize their group play consisted of two-point wins over Lithuania and Brazil, and a mere seven-point win over Qatar (who are exactly as good at basketball as you'd think). They lost to Argentina 83-58 in the quarterfinals. Team USA should win by 35.

How did Team USA do in the three criteria I mentioned in the USA vs. Canada post?
Solid Defense: F for the first quarter, A for the last three. USA started with the too-much-of-the-court pressure instead of locking down the last third of the court, and as a result, Turkey scored 30 first quarter points. When the Americans played a less risky defense over the last three quarters, Turkey scored 7, 22, and 23 points.

Protecting the rim and the defensive glass: D. Allowing 16 offensive rebounds is not very impressive. Luckily, Turkey didn't seem to capitalize with putbacks. Preventing easy buckets and controlling the backboards are usually a foundation for any great team, but I think this team could probably win by an average of 25 points a game without outrebounding their opponents. Not that they'd want to. Still, at the 2007 Olympic Qualifier, they only outrebounded opponents by an average of 2.9 per game, but outscored them by an average of 39.5 points per game. Granted, the Olympic field is going to be tougher than the Olympic Qualifier field, but obviously, this team's success doesn't depend on dominating the glass. Being able to outrebound teams would put less pressure on the other aspects of the game.

Patient and efficient offense: A. Except for the 17 turnovers, most of which were from trying to beat a zone with one pass instead of multiple passes, USA was excellent on offense. Six of 14 from three, 69.5% shooting overall, 26 of 32 free throws.

Overall: B. Really, the only available grades for this team are A and F. I'm not going to say there aren't moral victories in sports, but those usually involve things like overachieving, enjoying the unselfishness and teamwork, and generally reaching their full potential but just not being able to win against a better team. If USA plays reasonably near their potential, they will win. Therefore, anything less than a gold medal gets an F. No offense to the other teams, but the Gold medal is in USA's hands unless they give it away. Would Team USA win gold if they played every game like they did against Turkey? Maybe not, but the main weakness in this game was addressed by Coach K in the post-game press conference: "I think we’ve realized that we’re not going to blow a team out in the first quarter and just continue to play solid defensively and try and wear a team down. What we are coming off the bench with – are Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and etcetera. We have guys who can come in and wear a team down. Once we realize it’s not going to happen in the first quarter, but towards the middle of the second quarter and then towards the end of the third quarter where we can break the game open and that’s what we did. We allowed them to get into a little comfort zone because we tried to blow them out too fast." If they play every game like they did in last three quarters, which is more likely than playing like they did in the first quarter, they will win gold.


USA vs. Lithuania:
How good is Lithuania? Lithuania is probably somewhere between fourth and sixth best among teams in the Olympics this year. I have Russia, Greece, and them in fourth through sixth, but I haven't decided on the order. At the 2007 Eurobasket, they went undefeated until the semifinals, where they lost to eventual champion Russia 86-74, then beat Greece 78-69 for bronze. At the 2006 World Basketball Championship, they went 3-2 in their group, with a two point loss to Turkey, and an overtime loss to Greece. They actually led the group in scoring margin, but Greece (5-0) and Turkey (4-1) each had better records. After sqeezing by Italy in the round of sixteen, they lost to Spain 89-67. At the 2005 Eurobasket, they finished in fifth place with a 5-1 record. A week ago, they lost an exhibition match against Spain 91-66. The only teams I can say with certainty are better than Lithuania are Argentina, Spain, and USA. USA should win by 30.

Solid defense: B+. Team USA finally stopped the stupid press and instead tried to just plain shut down Lithuania. There were a few instances when Lithuania got easy buckets off the pick-and-roll even though pick-and-roll defense was supposed to be a point of emphasis in training camp after the Greece debacle. Also, occasionally, shooters were not closed out on, letting Lithuania shoot 55% from three (12-22). Lastly, USA committed way too many stupid fouls. Lithuania made 22 of 27 free throws.

Protecting the rim and the defensive glass: B. Eleven offensive rebounds for Lithuania and a 37-39 overall disadvantage for Team USA.

Patient and efficient offense: Thirty-four assists, 11 turnovers. Sixty-four percent shooting, 44 percent from three. They did struggle a little with the 2-3 zone, but Deron Williams was able to penetrate and do whatever he wanted inside. Importantly, they cut down on turnovers this game. The offense for this team is so good. They get so many easy baskets, especially in transition. It remains to be seen how they will do against a team with players who can handle half-court pressure, and are smart enough to send a few guys back in transition.

Overall: A. If they play every game like they played against Lithuania, they would win a gold medal.